Lincolnshire is under severe threat of being placed under the greatest level of coronavirus restrictions, when national lockdown ends.
The region is among the places most at risk of entering the toughest lockdown measures, based on the previous infection rates of local areas that were previously in Tier 3.
Although yet to be confirmed, the plan is for England’s four-week lockdown to end on December 2, with a likely return to the localised tier system that was in place previously.
This was introduced in October with the tier alert level, ranging from ‘medium’ (Tier 1), high (Tier 2) and very high (Tier 3).
Worryingly, in Lincolnshire coronavirus infections generally remain above the national average.
The rate, which is a figure based on how many cases there were per 100,000 people in the past week, is particularly high in East Lindsay which had 529 cases.
The average area in England had 221 cases in the same week.
The rate is also higher than it was in many areas that went into Tier 3 last month, before the national lockdown was brought it.
By comparison, areas of Nottinghamshire such as Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Mansfield all had over 300 cases per 100,000, when the county was placed into the highest tier.
The night Nottinghamshire moved into Tier 3, Nottingham city had an infection rate of 436.2.
A number of local areas throughout Lincolnshire are currently posting similar infection rates.
It is also above the national average in the Boston area (477.4) and in Lincoln which had 439 cases.
Boston actually had the one of the biggest week-on-week increases in the country, up from a rate of 189.5 the week before, with 335 new cases.
North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire also remain above the average with rates of 433 and 545.2 respectively.
Both were moved originally going to be moved up into Tier 2 just before the national lockdown was announced.
Even South Kesteven, with one of region’s lowest infection rates, is still slightly above the national average, with 229 coronavirus cases.
Data is based on the week November 6-12.
The past four days data are excluded, as it is incomplete and does not reflect the accurate number of cases.
A return to the tier system may mean even tougher restrictions could be imposed on households socialising and mixing during the festive period.
When the system first came into place, those in Tier 3 areas were not allowed to mix with other households indoors or outdoors, with guidance against travelling in and out of the area.
Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick has said that tighter controls may be needed in the highest tier when the system returns, although did admit ministers want to see a “significant easing” of coronavirus controls.
This would obviously be a huge blow to everyone hoping to celebrate a ‘normal’ Christmas.
Alternatively, the Government may push for extending the England lockdown beyond December 2, although that would require the approval of MPs in the House of Commons.
If a local tier system does return Northern England is expected to be the hardest hit.
Other places are risk of being shunted into the highest tier, based on their current infection rate are; Hull, Manchester, Derbyshire, Leeds, Newcastle and Lancashire.
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